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alexroach1992
What are the odds of losing 14 hands in a row playing perfect basic strategy? (Standing soft 17 with 6 decks)
Also what is the calculation to work out how likely it is to lose x amount of hands in a row?
Many thanks for anyone who can help
Also what is the calculation to work out how likely it is to lose x amount of hands in a row?
Many thanks for anyone who can help
- What is the probability of losing the next six hands at blackjack, using basic strategy, ignoring pushes? The answer is 0.526 ^ 6 = 0.021 = 2.1%. That is roughly 1 in 47 attempts.
- It might be useful to track how many units you lose in a row as opposed to how many hands, since you can expect to lose more hands than the dealer, but if you play a +EV game, you can expect to win more units than the dealer. It appears to follow that you have a greater chance of losing 10 hands in a row than winning 10 hands in a row.
- The probability of losing one hand is therefore.5.Probability of Blackjack. If the probability of a blackjack is p then the probability of not getting any blackjacks in 10 hands is 1-(1-p) 10. For example in a six deck game the answer would be 1- 0.952511 10 = 0.385251.
teliot
Though the odds of winning a hand of blackjack is independent so If you've lost 6 in a row the chance you lose the next hand is still 52.5% legacyAccount, Mar 27, 2006 legacyAccount Old Account.
What are the odds of losing 14 hands in a row playing perfect basic strategy? (Standing soft 17 with 6 decks)
The probability of losing 14 in a row is about p = (0.4787)^14 = 0.00003318. So the odds are about 30140-to-1.
Quote:
Also what is the calculation to work out how likely it is to lose x amount of hands in a row?
The probability of losing x in a row is about p = (0.4787)^x. So the odds are about [(1-p)/p] -to-1.
Since I am only giving p to four decimal place accuracy, you shouldn't express the answer with more than 4 significant digits. For example, the odds of losing 30 in a row are about 3964000000-to-1.
mustangsally
The probability of losing 14 in a row is p = (0.4787)^14 = 0.00003318. So the odds are about 30140-to-1.
nice question OPnow, this is with a Push breaking the streak
i think a player would still be crushed losing 14 hands in a row with a few pushes thrown in too
that also makes it way easier to see that event
if one plays 100 hands i show the chance that somewhere in those 100 hands the chance to lose at least 14 in a row = abouts
1 in 657
1000 hands played = 1 in 59
so my non-professional opinion is more hands played increases the chance of seeing such a streak at least 1 time
when a Push breaks the losing streak
i ran recent cvdata sim of 411,318,396 hands played (400 million rounds)
24,574 losing streaks of 14 and higher for the player (pushes did not break the streak)
the average number of rounds to play to see such a losing run
push breaks the streak = 57,747.591 (from a Markov chain calculation)
push no break the streak = 19,453.96652 (from a Markov chain calculation too)
losing streaks in BJ, in my opinion,
are the highest from the games of Craps, Roulette and Baccarat (with the best HE bets)
because using BS does not take into consideration playing the hand to give the highest hand win percentage
(that would be for tournament style BJ play)
I Heart Vi Hart
teliot
now, this is with a Push breaking the streak
i think a player would still be crushed losing 14 hands in a row with a few pushes thrown in too
I get the probability of losing 14 in a row equal to about 8330-to-1 (starting from any fixed hand), when ties don't break the streak.i think a player would still be crushed losing 14 hands in a row with a few pushes thrown in too
alexroach1992
Thanks guys, I've found a site which has a 10p minimum table and 10,000 maximum so I could double up 16 times or so before losing?
I guess it's risky but I would have to be so unlucky playing basic strategy to lose that many times in a row :?(
I guess it's risky but I would have to be so unlucky playing basic strategy to lose that many times in a row :?(
mustangsally
I get the probability of losing 14 in a row equal to about 8330-to-1 (starting from any fixed hand), when ties are allowed to occur in the streak.
that looks good to meso over
100 rounds played the probability to see at least 1 such run of 14 losses increases to abouts 1 in 224
1000 rounds = 1 in 20 (lucky 1)
Blackjack Odds Chart
i would say
not one BJ player would think that should ever happen
i am just guessing on that,
but it could and does happen and should be expected to happen
I Heart Vi Hart
mustangsally
Thanks guys, I've found a site which has a 10p minimum table and 10,000 maximum so I could double up 16 times or so before losing?
I guess it's risky but I would have to be so unlucky playing basic strategy to lose that many times in a row :?(
not that risky if you play to win just 1 or 2 times and stop foreverI guess it's risky but I would have to be so unlucky playing basic strategy to lose that many times in a row :?(
the risk lies in playing it more than 1 time and keeping on playing
the more rounds you play the chances keep increasing that you will see such a losing streak
good luck in your fun
I Heart Vi Hart
AxelWolf
Thanks guys, I've found a site which has a 10p minimum table and 10,000 maximum so I could double up 16 times or so before losing?
I guess it's risky but I would have to be so unlucky playing basic strategy to lose that many times in a row :?(
If it's online then there's probably a 95% it will happen.I guess it's risky but I would have to be so unlucky playing basic strategy to lose that many times in a row :?(
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
alexroach1992
It's on William Hill...I'd imagine all the simulators they use are regulated. Unlikely they would get away with them being rigged?
odiousgambit
3 things and 2 cents*you can spot this kind of post with its subject [in caps no less] 10 miles away and it's always one of two things: the poster has taken a terrible beating several times in a row and thinks it is near impossible
*or is thinking about doing the martingale
*the OP is never interested in learning the math himself, nice try Teliot
so the OP is the latter type ; my 2 cents is, 'forget it'. The martingale has been around for centuries. You can skip the math [which I am thinking is your wont anyway] and just stare that fact in the face. Either that or locate the article about the guy who cleaned out the casinos and the martingale is how he did it.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
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Thanks for the answer about risk of ruin on power poker vs. single play. Now for a follow up... which has more volatility, $1 jacks or better, or $.50 4-play jacks or better (betting $10 per play instead of $5 per play)?
From my video poker appendix 3 we can see the standard deviation for 1-play jacks or better is 4.417542. The standard deviation for 4-play jacks or better is 5.041215. Keep in mind these figures are per hand and relative to the betting unit. Adjusting for bet size and number of hands the standard deviation of $5 bet in 1-play jacks or better is 11/2*5*4.417542 = 22.08771. The standard deviation of 4 bets of $2.50 in 4-play jacks or better is 41/2*$2.50*5.041215 = 25.20608. So you are better off betting the smaller total amount in 1-play. Interestingly you can double the total amount bet in 4-play and the standard deviation only goes up by 14.12%.
Hi, have you ever heard any complaints about 'SLOTLAND casino' because I am a bit suspicious about their space jack game. Playing the perfect strategy the expected return is 101.7%. But after playing many and many hands I have not made any profit. So, I would like to have your opinion!
Actually I get a player return of 101.62%. Buried within their rules is this statement, 'Please note that all games share the same mechanism which determines the jackpot win. Thus, with card games, the probability of hitting the jackpot combination is not natural but controlled by this shared random mechanism in the same way as slot machines' wins.' It is my understanding that they offered this game for quite a while before posting this warning. I just don't trust any casino that would rig a card game, even if they admit it in the fine print.
If you have 15 and the dealer shows an eight...basic strategy say to hit. In this case, whether you hit or stay your chance of losing is over 70%........why is not the better play to surrender if you are going to lose over 70% of the time no matter if you hit or stay?
For the sake of simplicity let’s stay with your example and say the probability of winning is 70% and losing is 30% if you hit. The expected value of hitting would be 0.3*1 + 0.7*-1 = -0.4. This is greater than the expected value of -0.5 by surrendering.
Appendix 3b: Composition dependent exceptions to double deck basic strategy where the dealer stands on soft 17. Do these apply to multiple (4, 6 and 8) deck games or is there NO variation from Basic Strategy on these?
No, these exceptions should not be used for 4-8 decks. There are a few exceptions in 4-8 deck games but they are so border line that it isn’t worth the bother to learn them. An interesting rule of thumb for all numbers of decks is that with 16 vs. 10, where the 16 is composed of 3 or more cards, in general the odds favor standing.
I play the negative system in black jack meaning I double every time I lose until I Win. I wanted to what the odds are of losing 4,5,6,7,8,9 hands in a row? How many hands should I expect to play till I lost 8 hands which is my stopping point?
The name for this system is the Martingale. Ignoring ties the probability of a new loss for a hand of blackjack is 52.51%. So the probability of losing 8 in a row is .52518 = 1 in 173.
I play 50 cent slots and higher. I am happy with making a profit of $20 to $150 each session. I quit playing when I reach these levels. Are the high volatility, low frequency and low jackpot machines the best to play using this strategy? Please give me names of particular lines of machines to play.
No. If your goal is a small win then you should be playing low volatility, high hit frequency games. I can’t suggest any particular games but look for ones with comparatively small jackpots. These will also help you to play longer.
I read your topic in Roulette on the Martingale method. I have tried this method a few times on the computer and I have been up $500. Then I went to the casino and lost over $1000. Because black came up 8 times in a row. But I’m just starting to learn baccarat. I was trying it on the computer and again I have been up $500, by betting on the banker. Starting at $20 then going to $40 then $80 and so on. I was up $500 even with paying the 5%on each hand. Do you think this method would work in a casino? I thought I would ask before I go and lose another $1000. Like I said black came up 8 times in a row. But do you think that the player hand would win 8 times in a row? Plus this game is good because a tie is a push, where in roulette 0, or 00, is a loss.
The Martingale is dangerous on every game and in the long run will never win. However it is better to use in baccarat than roulette, just because of the lower house edge. The probability of the player winning 8 times in a row is 0.493163^8 = 1 in 286. Also keep in mind you could win a hand late in the series and still come out behind because of the commission. For example if you started with a bet of $1 and you won on the 7th hand you would win $60.80 ($64*95%), which would not cover the $63 in previous loses.
Have you calculated any of the odds for the slot machines at Harrah’s Cherokee Casino? NC law requires games of skill. As a result of this law all of the common slots such as Double Diamond, Red-White-Blue, etc were installed with a two spin option. After the first spin you may hold or respin any of the three rows to obtain final results. Charts are available on every machine to show the total number of each symbol and blanks in each row. Since these machines are IGT machines I assume that the symbols are weighted and randomly selected as posted. If this is true then the payback % can be calculated just as it is in video poker. Just curious if you had any info.
I’ve been asked about these North Carolina slot machines so many times I’m tempted to fly there just to see them for myself. Yes, if they did give the probability of each symbol for each reel then an optimal strategy and a return could be fairly easily calculated. However I have never actually seen such a table and have never worked out the odds.
Blackjack Odds Table
In your Table of probabilities in Three Card Poker you state the number of combinations as 9720 for Queen to Ace high and Jack high or less as 6720. I’m trying to calculate these probabilities myself and have failed to do so. I would be obliged if I you could let me see your calculations. Much obliged.
The probability of any hand less than a pair is the product of the number of ways to pick 3 different ranks out of 13, less 12 for the consecutive ranks that result in a straight, and the number of ways to pick a suit 3 different times, less 4 for picking the same suit each time. So the total combinations for ace-high or less is (combin(13,3)-12)*(43-4) = 16,440.
Now let’s look at the combinations for a jack high or less. We have omitted 3 ranks so there are 3 ranks to choose from among 10. However 8 of these combinations result in a straight (2/3/4 to 9/10/J). Again there are 43-4 ways to pick the suits. So the total combinations is (combin(10,3)-8)*( 43-4) = 6,720. The total combinations for Q-A high is simply 16,440-6,720=9,720. For an explanation of the combin function please see my probabilities in poker section.